Daily Fantasy Sports blog from DFS expert Craig Clark
12/23 - DraftKings Week 16: Starting With Cam
To win big money in Week 15's DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP, one needed both chalk and swerve. Cam Newton (this week's price: $7,500), David Johnson ($5,800) and Jordan Reed (Saturday game) were all well-owned selections that made the top ticket. Despite being arguably the NFL's top wide receiving talent, Antonio Brown ($9,300) was only owned in 5% of the GPP and far less on 50/50s, and yet still was able to pile up nearly 50 points. All this shows is that you cannot be afraid of anyone with the talent and opportunity, despite a negative matchup with Denver. And Brown has all the talent and opportunity you could ever want.
Watch Julio Jones ($8,300) be similarly avoided this week because of his matchup with Josh Norman and the Panthers. Todd Gurley ($6,200) against Seattle? He’ll also be widely avoided. And, in truth, you won't see these guys listed below on my fairly generic ticket. But as I build more cards, they will find their place, especially Julio. On the other hand, David Johnson ($5,800) nearly hit 30% ownership last week and I just expect that number to grow as he did nothing to dissuade us.
There are several enticing QBs this week, and they’re all expensive. But I don't want to monkey around with bigger risks, so you’ll see me start my cards with Cam. But if you want Tom Brady ($7,500) or Russell Wilson ($7,200) or Carson Palmer ($7,000) or Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800), I’m totally on board. The cheaper running backs all carry some risk and I expect them to be selected early, but in a balanced way that does not overemphasize one guy.
San Diego and Oakland battle Thursday night while Washington tries to take the woeful NFC East division against Philadelphia on Saturday. Ignoring them, here are some nice options for your DFS ticket come Sunday:
Cam Newton ($7,500) – A complete force of nature
Russell Wilson ($7,200) – White-hot
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) – He's driving a Maserati
Blake Bortles ($6,500) – Many will make this play against New Orleans
Teddy Bridgewater ($5,200) – Coming alive at the right time
Devonta Freeman ($7,400) – Keep those receptions coming
Adrian Peterson ($7,300) – Still think he's a great bet
Todd Gurley ($6,200) – Seattle is too scary?
David Johnson ($5,800) – 33 touches yielded nearly 50 points; many, many will take him
Charcandrick West ($5,700) – Cleveland plays the run soft but will the stage be his alone?
Karlos Williams ($4,500) – Time to strut his stuff
Christine Michael ($4,400) – Great debut, but looking like a platoon
Antonio Brown ($9,300) – Averaging a meager 34 points his last six weeks
Julio Jones ($8,300) – Already failed once against Carolina; he's doomed to repeat it right?
Allen Robinson ($7,500) – Great matchup
Mike Evans ($7,300) – Might get 20 targets
Sammy Watkins ($6,700) – Six touchdowns in four games
Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) – Best option for KC
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) – Bubkus for two weeks and then 16 targets
John Brown ($5,300) – All the opportunity you could wish for; now if he could only catch
Rueben Randle ($3,500) – With OBJ presumably out, he's a very cheap #1 wideout
Gronk ($7,600) – High floor and high ceiling
Greg Olsen ($7,500) – High floor but lower ceiling
Julius Thomas ($5,100) – Did I mention New Orleans?
Will Tye ($3,500) – Should get even more action if OBJ is out
Kansas City ($4,200) – Double-digit fantasy points six of last seven games
Houston ($2,800) – Another backup QB to feast on
Minnesota ($2,500) – The Giants could collapse
My DraftKings Ticket:
Cam Newton, Adrian Peterson, Karlos Williams, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, Will Tye, John Brown, Houston Defense
12/17 - DraftKings Week 15: Chasing Points
Week 14 saw scoring take a dip, and the DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP top-10 tickets almost all featured a healthy Seattle stack and a sick Odell Beckham (this week's price $9,200). Injuries took tickets out early and then late, leaving winners of 50/50s even more random. Very few people took a chance on stud Todd Gurley (Thursday game this week) and those who did were rewarded with cash money. We should’ve known that it pays to have a memory longer than two weeks. Then again, I'm as guilty of a short memory as anyone, as you’re about to see.
You’ll find that my ticket chases last week's points, but I hope my reasoning is sound. Many expensive wide receivers are facing tough matchups, while Seattle's running backs may be asked only to block or catch passes. So I'm loving that Seattle passing stack once again. And Odell, well...what can you say? Pure greatness. Although he's playing a corner who runs his mouth and backs it up, I'm hoping that still puts Odell above the position's scoring average. So although chasing points is dangerous, I believe it was Eliot Ness who said, “I've become what I've beheld and am content that I have done right.” No? Okay. You got me. It was Kevin Costner.
Tampa Bay plays at St. Louis on Thursday night in a game that, if your roof was on fire, this matchup might actually put it out. The Jets play in Dallas on Saturday night, so no Brandon Marshall and no screaming as to why Dez isn’t getting any targets. Other than that, here are some players for your Sunday and Monday DFS consideration:
Russell Wilson ($7,000) – No player is hotter, and with no Rawls he’ll be asked to do even more
Carson Palmer ($7,000) – Love his matchup Sunday night against Philly
Drew Brees ($6,600) – Detroit can be tough, but I'm not scared
Blake Bortles ($6,100) – Sold his soul and the devil wants his money back
Alex Smith ($5,100) – When you find your pockets empty except for a few crumbs
T.J. Yates ($5,000) – When even the crumbs are gone
Adrian Peterson ($7,100) – Triedest and truest for all ye that remember
Lamar Miller ($6,300) – Displayed both his and his coaches' talent on Monday night
David Johnson ($5,700) – If he’s healthy; Philadelphia sends a gold-embroidered invitation
Eddie Lacy ($5,200) – My eyes say yes, while my gut bewares
Jeremy Hill ($5,000), Gio Bernard ($4,500) – Expect Cincy to play closer to the ground without Dalton
Buck Allen ($4,500) – Still getting those targets
Tim Hightower ($3,900) – Cheapest clear #1 running back
Odell Beckham ($9,200) – Josh Norman will scare others away but not me
Julio Jones ($8,500) – With many tough matchups for expensive wideouts, he's looking nice
Calvin Johnson ($6,900) – Friendly matchup against New Orleans
Demaryius Thomas ($6,800) – Lots of targets he might think about catching
Sammy Watkins ($6,200) – Too cheap for his recent production
Doug Baldwin ($5,800), Tyler Lockett ($4,200) – Seattle is gonna have to keep throwing it
Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) – You could do a lot worse
John Brown ($4,900), Michael Floyd ($4,400) – A Cardinals stack is invitingly priced
Gronk ($7,700) – Back and all out of bubblegum
Jordan Reed ($5,900) – Getting what you pay for and more
Ben Watson ($4,800) – High floor and ceiling
Julius Thomas ($4,700) – A cheap piece of the Bortles experience
Seattle ($4,200) – Home against Cleveland seems unfair
New England ($3,700) – Can't see Mariota having a good day
Houston ($2,500) – Save some bucks and face some Hasselbeck (make sure Luck isn’t playing!)
My DraftKings Ticket
Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson, Tim Hightower, Odell Beckham, Doug Baldwin, Michael Floyd, Jordan Reed, Tyler Lockett, Texans Defense
12/17 - FanDuel Week 15: Mixing It Up
Judging from the listenership’s reaction to my DraftKings lineup, the strategy I’m using this week seems popular. The great fear here is that a huge portion of the DFS universe is going to have these same players, especially the Seahawks, and winning money will require perfectionSo for the FanDuel lineup, I'm going to try and come with an alternative to this. I'm even going to stay away from the Cardinals as I expect them to be nearly as overused. This results in a lineup of balance, with little new toys to play with. The original Star Wars action figures were always my favorite anyway.
Here are a few Week 15 FanDuel options for your consideration:
Cam Newton ($9,400) – Has to carry even more water with his weapons dinged
Matthew Stafford ($7,800) – Expect him to be highly owned too, facing New Orleans
Philip Rivers ($7,400) – Nice matchup and you’ll have him to yourself
Matt Ryan ($7,200) – Even Rivers is laughing at him; kind of love it as a zig
LeSean McCoy ($7,900) – Very safe floor with decent upside
Lamar Miller ($6,700) – Double-reverse jinx might see him get extra work, if he's healthy
Charcandrick West ($5,900) – Assuming Ware sits, it would be his boat to float
Denard Robinson ($6,300) – Atlanta terrible against the run
Brandon Bolden ($5,500) – Blount for a new generation
Christine Michael ($4,800) – You can't get Brown, but Michael is available
A.J. Green ($8,700) – A.J. to A.J. if you're into synchronicity
Julio Jones ($8,600) – Fallen to fifth in WR price, but first in matchup
Sammy Watkins ($7,200) – Retail talent at wholesale price
Allen Hurns ($7,000) – Undervalued; make sure he plays
Golden Tate ($6,900) – Detroit's most consistant wideout against the New Orleans uggernaut
Stefon Diggs ($5,700) – Cheap, although there may not be a DFS player left he hasn’t burned
Rueben Randle ($5,600) – Josh Norman will be occupied elsewhere
Jordan Reed ($6,300) – Gotta have one guy the same
Zach Miller ($5,500) – Will be the popular discount pick
Richard Rodgers ($5,500) – Priced well below his production
I'm just taking the Kansas City guy.
Arizona ($5,200) – Could a Bradford stinker be upcoming?
Cincinnati ($4,900) – The Book on Blaine is expands while his success fades
Pittsburgh ($4,600) – Osweiler not as shiny anymore
My FanDuel Ticket:
Cam Newton, Charcandrick West, Denard Robinson, Julio Jones, Sammy Watkins, Golden Tate, Jordan Reed, Cairo Santos, Pittsburgh Defense
12/10 -DraftKings Week 14: Go Cheap On RBs
Now that was a lot of points! In Week 13, you had to have 190 points to cash in DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP, with the top tickets having a Steelers stack paired with “Buck Allen Robinson” playing two positions. Even the 50/50s required 185-plus points, so I got excited about my own high-scoring tickets that I thought were money makers, and wound up seeing precious little scratch.
So many players scored big last week, that I think the overall % ownership numbers will flatten out some. Except, of course, with Jameis Winston (this week’s price: $5,500), as whichever quarterback faces New Orleans is automatically awarded a pole position. Winston isn’t my favorite QB this week—that would be Big Ben ($6,900)—and you must realize that when when you take Winston this week, you're riding with everyone else.
Running backs are cheap in Week 14. Even last week's top scorer Buck Allen ($5,300) got cheaper, reflecting a low ownership percentage. If you’re like me, you're trying to find a couple of inexpensive RBs you can stomach so that you can afford many of attractive wide receiver options. You can't play all the top wideouts so be choosy, because this is where you'll make your money. Playing a top tight end costs you a top wideout too, so think hard. I love Greg Olsen ($6,900) this week, but it's so tough to pay that price.
Minnesota plays Arizona on Thursday, but everyone else is available. Here are some players worthy of consideration for Week 14:
Cam Newton ($7,500) – Great GPP play; above 30 points three of last six games
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) – Tough matchup gets him more to yourself
Russell Wilson ($6,300) – Back-to-back games in the stratosphere
Blake Bortles ($6,000) – Weapons alone make him worth consideration every week
Jameis Winston ($5,500) – The guy everyone will have
Doug Martin ($6,200) – Don't forget the RB against New Orleans, as well
Jonathan Stewart ($5,800) – Atlanta is very forgiving
Lamar Miller ($5,700) – Opportunities are there for the taking
Buck Allen ($5,300) – Catches + Carries, but unfortunately here comes Seattle
Shaun Draughn ($4,800) – Cleveland is kind to running backs
Latavius Murray ($4,800) – The only viable Raiders play against Denver
James White ($4,100) – Low-floor, high-ceiling GPP play; game-flow dependent
Odell Beckham ($9,100) – Five straight games of at least 23 DraftKings points
Antonio Brown ($8,900) – Three of last four above 40!
Allen Robinson ($8,000) – An emerging monster, and priced like it
A.J. Green ($7,900) – Two strong weeks now and intriguing matchup against Pittsburgh
Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) – Way too cheap and now=Washington
Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) – If you need to save money, a true NFL #1
Danny Amendola ($5,200) – The guy that lets you afford the other guys
Dorial Green-Beckham ($3,700) – It took time, but now he's a Titans priority
Greg Olsen ($6,900) – High price but sucks in the targets
Tyler Eifert ($5,600) – If he'd play, I'd take him
Delanie Walker ($5,600) – The straw that stirs the drink in Tennessee
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($2,700) – Back, cheap, and now New Orleans
Seattle ($3,500) – Finally rounding into shape
Detroit ($2,700) – Sucker-punched by a Hail Mary, but still potent
Tennessee ($2,300) – Toughest defense that nobody plays
My DraftKings Ticket:
Ben Roethlisberger, Jonathan Stewart, James White, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, Jeremy Maclin, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Danny Amendola, Detroit Defense
12/10 - FanDuel Week 14: Zigging And Zagging
For most of the world, the idea will be the same over here at FanDuel: get the cheap running backs so you can have the elite wideouts. So let's think about doing the opposite. Maybe this is the week for Gurley and Freeman! If I start with them, I can still get some nice wideouts, except my quarterback ends up being named Blaine. So I'll list two tickets, each in their extreme. Which one do you like? Tweet me @pcclark59.
Here are some players for your FanDuel consideration:
Cam Newton ($9,200) – Pricey, but hard not to take if you can afford it
Russell Wilson ($8,500) – Hitting elite numbers finally
Andy Dalton ($8,200) – Getting his weapons back against Pittsburgh's leaky pass defense
Jameis Winston ($7,800) – Not as cheap as at DraftKings
Blaine Gabbert ($6,400) – Safest of the cheap QBs
Devonta Freeman ($8,700) – You might have him all to yourself
Todd Gurley ($7,900) – Ditto
Thomas Rawls ($7,400) – High-floor guy with upside
Latavius Murray ($6,200) – Not many will take him against Denver
Tim Hightower ($4,500) – Minimum price with workload TBD
ODB and Antonio Brown ($9,300) – FanDuel knows who we all want
A.J. Green ($8,500) – Played well first go-round against Pittsburgh
Alshon Jeffery ($7,500) – Disappointed when others soared last week
Jarvis Landry ($7,100) – Really disappointed last week; puts him in a buyers’ market
Jeremy Maclin ($6,900) –Way too cheap
Doug Baldwin ($6,800) – Feast or famine
Greg Olsen ($6,600) – Very high floor
Tyler Eifert ($6,300) – Welcome back, we hope
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5,500) – Not nearly as cheap as over at DraftKings
You’re welcome to pick from a hat, but I'm taking the guy on Kansas City or Washington
Seattle ($5,300) – Picking on Schaub or Clausen seems unfair
NY Jets ($4,800) – Going against Mariota not as attractive as it used to be
Detroit ($4,700) – In Foles or Keenum we trust...against
My Two FanDuel Tickets:
Blaine Gabbert, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Alshon Jeffery, Jeremy Maclin, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Eifert, Dustin Hopkins, Detroit Defense
Andy Dalton, Latavius Murray, Tim Hightower, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, Tyler Eifert, Cairo Santos, Detroit Defense
12/3 - DraftKings Week 13: Brady As Contrarian?
I might have been just like you in Week 12. Paying top dollar for DeAndre Hopkins (this week's price $8,800) against the woeful New Orleans defense in a dream matchup. In fact, Hopkins reached an incredible 52% ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP and far, far higher in every kind of 50/50. And the Saints decided to let anyone else beat them but him, and Houston obliged. It turned out fading Hopkins was the play to make money.
Fortunately, Adrian Peterson ($6,600) and Odell Beckham ($8,800) lived up to their billing (and Peterson got cheaper again this week!). AP was a must-own to reach a top 10 GPP ticket and Beckham was among a bevy of wideouts who also got you there. With those two, it’s becoming harder and harder to say no. The talent is just too evident. They're not “sure things,” but I'm comfortable with their odds.
The weekly To Gronk Or Not To Gronk decision is made for us, as New England lost yet another weapon. But don't skulk away from them just yet, as Philadelphia comes to town and I can't think of a team playing worse. I like Tom Brady ($8,000) as a nice contrarian play this week.
At last, the byes are over and so is Turkey Day. Only Green Bay and Detroit play on Thursday to remove themselves from our Sunday fun. Here are some players I'm considering for several tickets:
Tom Brady ($8,000) – If he could only catch it too, as Philly’s D is atrocious
Cam Newton ($7,400) – New Orleans is soft to passers and runners, and he can do both
Drew Brees ($6,900) – If you want to make your ticket unique
Russell Wilson ($5,600) – Not expecting a repeat perfermance
Brock Osweiler ($5,200) – The new toy
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) – No time like the present against the Giants
Adrian Peterson ($6,600) – Seattle is tough...but who’m I kidding, I'm still taking him!
Doug Martin ($5,900) – High ceiling guy against Atlanta's stinking sinking oil tanker
Buck Allen ($5,400) – Competent as a starter and now faces Miami's soft underbelly
LeGarrette Blount ($5,100) – The remaining weapon in a matchup that's sweet
Spencer Ware ($4,900) – If West is out, his price is hard to turn down
C.J. Anderson ($3,500) – Cheap and ready to be the player we all expected?
David Johnson ($3,400) – Let's see if he can do it
Odell Beckham ($8,900) – Humming along with a mere 18 targets last week
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800) – Will anyone take him again? Might make a good zig
Brandon Marshall ($7,100) – Can I interest you in touchdowns, catches and yards?
Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) – High-end results for mid-range price
Jarvis Landry ($6,700) – The part of Miami that works
T.Y. Hilton ($5,700) – The Steelers made Baldwin a star; what might they do with Hilton?
Jeremy Maclin ($5,200) – Now that was more like it
Danny Amendola ($4,700) – If he's back, he's gonna get sooooo much work
Markus Wheaton ($3,600) – I'm a sucker for recency bias, but not with this guy
Greg Olsen ($6,400) – Playing the Saints will attract a crowd
Delanie Walker ($5,700) – Jax defense inviting to TEs, regular joes and even vampires
Julius Thomas ($4,000) – Starting to get all the targets you could want
Scott Chandler ($2,500) – Minimum price with maximum ownership
Arizona ($3,900) – Matchup against Rams isn’t intimidating
Cincinnati ($3,400) – QB roulette with the Browns
Houston ($2,500) – Way too cheap for how well they've been playing
My DraftKings Ticket:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Adrian Peterson, C.J. Anderson, Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Julius Thomas, Danny Amendola, Texans DEF
12/3 - FanDuel Week 13: Pay For Production
With FanDuel's Earth-based pricing structure, I have to decide on my priorities. I want the same starting players as in DraftKings, but there are no tricks, and past production costs big bucks whereas past percent-ownership weighs less. So I've got my guys I just like the best—Adrian Peterson (this week's price $9,100) and Alshon Jeffery ($7,700)—written in ink and cost be damned. The rest of the ticket will just have to adjust.
Here are some players I'm considering on FanDuel for this weekend:
Drew Brees ($7,700) – Almost look at him as the ultimate contrarian play
Alex Smith ($6,600) – The Raiders are getting worse each game
AP ($9,100) – If he's stopped, it'll leave a welt
Devonta Freeman ($9,000) – Everyone's sleeping on him (including Harris!)
DeAngelo Williams ($7,200) – Opportunities on the ground and through the air
Buck Allen ($6,800) – That's a cruddy defense he's playing
Charcandrick West ($6,700), Spencer Ware ($6,500) – Lopsided or split? I like Chark to take it
Melvin Gordon ($5,900) – Can think of worse ways to spend your money
Odell Beckham ($9,400) – Love everything except the price; since I took AP, I must pass
Antonio Brown ($9,000) – Sense 15 catches are coming
A.J. Green ($8,400) – 3 good games out of last 10
Demaryius Thomas ($7,600), Emmanuel Sanders ($7,300) – Whose week will it be?
Alshon Jeffery ($7,400) – Ginormous against smaller DBs
Jarvis Landry ($7,400) – Baltimore's passing defense will be no match
Danny Amendola ($6,700) – Paying for anticipation
Jeremy Maclin ($6,500) – His best game was last week: coincidence or trend?
Travis Benjamin ($5,900) – Good price with lots of targets
Greg Olson ($6,600) – High % ownership + high cost = low returns
Jordan Reed ($5,900) – He makes Kirk Cousins looks good
Antonio Gates ($5,900) – The second you forget about him he scores twice
I'm taking the Pittsburgh dude. You can have who you like. Kickers. Feh.
Cincinnati ($5,100) – So much unnecessary Cleveland QB drama
St. Louis ($4,600) – Great inside their division last few years
Cleveland ($4,000) – Minimum price for a potential Dalton stinker
My FanDuel Ticket
lex Smith, Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Alshon Jeffery, Jarvis Landry, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Reed, Chris Boswell, Bengals Defense
11/26 - DraftKings Week 12: Texans Crush Saints?
It was a very sleepy Week 11, with low scoring and several injuries that decimated tickets. Only Thomas Rawls (this week's price $4,500) was a required selection to make a DraftKings Millionaire Maker top-10 ticket. 112 points were all that were needed to win most 50/50s, a paltry 12.5 points/player.
This makes two weeks in a row that scoring and matchups failed to live up to expectations. But just like any other trend in NFL DFS, it will only continue until it doesn't.
The trend that everyone will play this week, taking the Houston battery against the woeful New Orleans defense, seems ripe to end...sometime. Will this be the week, and will you be on the right side of it? I also like Pittsburgh's passing game to continue its stellar play despite a paper tiger of a matchup against Seattle. Many will stay away just because of the 'Hawks D, and I welcome the lower % ownership on my ticket.
With so many injuries, especially to running backs, there are a plethora of cheap starting plays. Too bad so many are unattractive. Thomas Rawls may be too cheap not to take, however, so expect sky-high % ownership. I still want the blue chippers.
No more byes! Although we do have the Thanksgiving day games of Carolina vs Dallas, Philadelphia vs Detroit, and Chicago vs Green Bay to bisect our fantasy week. Here are some DFS players for your week 12 consideration:
Carson Palmer ($7,100) – Highest floor of anyone
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700) – Should be priced like Brady ($8,000)
Eli Manning ($6,500) – Favorable matchup with Washington
Jameis Wilson ($5,500) – Growing up before our eyes
Kirk Cousins ($5,400) – Only as good as his opponent’s defense is bad
Brian Hoyer ($5,000) – Minimum-priced and now New Orleans
Adrian Peterson ($7,300) – Must always consider
Chris Ivory ($5,800) – Already ate up Miami once
Doug Martin ($5,800) – Great GPP play
T.J. Yeldon ($4,800) – San Diego is very forgiving
Buck Allen ($4,600) – The only game left in Baltimore
Thomas Rawls ($4,500) – Great price for the upside; don't love his matchup
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) – Nuk vs New Orleans doesn't seem fair
Odell Beckham ($8,700) – More than half the time he’s been above 20 points
Antonio Brown ($8,700) – Not afraid of Seattle
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) – In consideration every week
Mike Evans ($7,400), Vincent Jackson ($4,700) – Not loving the stack; want one or the other
Travis Benjamin ($5,300) – If you want to go against the Baltimore passing defense
DeSean Jackson ($5,100) – Itching to go long against the Giants
Delanie Walker ($5,400) – Becoming the surest thing at TE?
Jordan Reed ($5,100) – Love his matchup if he plays
Kyle Rudolph ($3,400) – Last week he caught the ball
Julius Thomas ($3,400) – Ready for a bigger role
Heath Miller ($3,100) – Doesn't always get the targets you'd want
Arizona ($3,900) – Waiting for Blaine Gabbert to crack
Pittsburgh ($3,000) – Several high-scoring games
Tennessee ($2,200) – Haven't scored much but still tough to play against
My DraftKings Ticket
Ben Roethlisberger, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, Julius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Tennessee Defense
11/19 - DraftKings Week 11: To Dizzle Or Not To Dizzle?
A very muted week 10 allowed for 200-plus points to approach the top 100 in DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP. Kirk Cousins (this week's price $5,300) was the latest QB to exploit the New Orleans defense (on a bye – and I just bought a boat!) and found himself on the top ticket. Jeremy Langford ($5,600) was the only must-own to get a top 10 return on your investment, which meant all sorts of combinations of players allowed for success. This also reflected a more level percentage-ownership field and smart pricing from DraftKings. Sadly, I don't think such a wide array of opportunities will exist this week, and many tickets will look alike.
In New England, with Julian Edelman injured, Danny Amendola ($4,000) steps into his role and I fear his low price will be the starting point of many, many tickets. That doesn't only lead to similarity at one of your WR spots; that extra salary will often likely get used in the same way. So Amendola is the key man this week: You must decide if you’re with him or against him, and build from there. My ticket below is with him. But I build multiple tickets per week, and expect to have some tickets that are against him.
In an algortihm note, last week Todd Gurley ($7,600) was 30% owned and scored 18 points while Adrian Peterson ($6,800) was 10% owned and scored 32 points. And yet Gurley was the RB who saw his salary increase by $300 this week, while Peterson saw his drop $300. This illustrates that the percentage a player is owned dictates the price of a DraftKings player more than scoring does.
New Orleans is on a bye so no opposing quarterback for you! Pittsburgh is on a bye so no Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant for you (#1 and #3 WRs last week). The Giants are on a bye so no Odell and Cleveland is on a bye and I doubt you care. Jacksonville and Tennessee will play on Thursday in a game very few will see. Here are some DFS options for your ticket this week:
Cam Newton ($6,900) – Washington's defense is inviting
Philip Rivers ($6,900) – Off a bye against a poor KC pass defense
Tony Romo ($6,000) – Too little too late for Dallas, but can he help you?
Matt Hasselbeck ($5,500) – Cheap QBs aren’t as attractive this week
Matthew Stafford ($5,400) – Oakland’s defense may help him out
Todd Gurley ($7,600) – Wonderful option, but watch everyone take the next guy\
Adrian Peterson ($6,800) – Puts up 32 points last week and gets cheaper?
Matt Forte ($6,800) or Jeremy Langford ($5,600) – Don't fear Denver, but do fear uncertainty
Frank Gore ($4,700) – With Luck out, I like the Colts to be more conservative
LeGarrette Blount ($5,000) – Looking like a real #1 back
Charcandrick West ($4,500) – Got fat off of Denver, now comes San Diego's poor run defense
Jonathan Stewart ($4,400) – Priced for obscurity but great matchup against Washington
Julio Jones ($9,300) – Amendola's price makes Julio affordable
Dez Bryant ($7,700) – Gets his Romo back
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200) – Usage monster
Michael Crabtree ($6,000) – Raiders tops in targets and receptions
Davante Adams ($4,600) – Umm...21 targets last week?
Danny Amendola ($4,000) – How much do we love thee? % ownership will count the ways
Michael Floyd ($3,800) – If healthy, a too-cheap piece of the Arizona attack
Gronk ($7,700) – He's actually getting cheaper
Antonio Gates ($4,800) – Relatively inexpensive and San Diego's best remaining option
Travis Kelce ($4,700) – Production is lagging his talent
Coby Fleener ($3,200) – One great game and one dog with Hasselbeck as his QB
Seattle ($4,000) – Facing the Blaine Gabbert at home; is that something you might be interested in?
Houston ($2,500) – Turning it around, to my disbelief
Chicago ($2,000) – Minimum-priced when Osweiler comes to town
My DraftKings Ticket:
Philip Rivers, Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Devonte Adams, Antonio Gates, Danny Amendola, Chicago Defense
11/19 - FanDuel Week 11: Eagles Nostalgia
With FanDuel's compressed pricing structure, you’re most likely only getting one guy above $8,000, although you can afford two if you really want to stretch elsewhere, and this week I found myself doing that. It's important to decide not just who, but on what position, you want to make your big purchases. I'm finding some value deeper down the board at wideout, so I'm gonna grab an expensive running back and tight end. I also think more people are going to take AP (this week's price $8,900) over at DraftKings, so, paradoxically, he's both more expensive and attractive to me here. But Devonta Freeman ($9,100) is feeling both forgotten and expensive. If you want to distinguish yourself, you could do a lot worse than Freeman.
I made money last year with Eagles stacks with Mark Sanchez ($6,400) and am filled with nostalgia. I know I won't be alone. I even debated taking Jeremy Maclin ($6,300) for good juju.
Here are some players for your consideration:
Aaron Rodgers ($8,900) – If he bounces back, you'll have him to yourself
Cam Newton ($8,600) – 50/50s start here with upside leftover
Carson Palmer ($8,200) – People will avoid the Bengals more than they should
Mark Sanchez ($6,400) – Same time last year?
Gurley ($9,200), Freeman ($9,100), Peterson ($8,900) – The high-dollar threesome; I can justify any one of them
Charcandrick West ($7,100) – Great value for the matchup against San Diego
Jonathan Stewart ($7,000) – Newton scares everyone away, making Stewart a good zig
Darren McFadden ($6,800) – Everybody's talking Romo, I like DMC against Miami even more
Ronnie Hillman ($6,200) – Cheap and possibly no longer a platoon
Julio Jones ($9,100) – Traded him away to bag AP, but love him this week
Calvin Johnson ($8,100) – Still got it
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) – Might be a target hound with his compatriots banged up
Jordan Matthews ($6,300) – Traveling back to 2014 for justification
Jeremy Maclin ($6,300) – Think Chiefs will first attack with the run
Danny Amendola ($6,100) – Not the bargain he is at DraftKings, but still a bargain
Kamar Aiken ($5,900) – A cheap target collector
Gronkowski ($8,400) – Safest receiver play on the Patriots
Antonio Gates ($5,900) – Can't stay away
Jordan Reed ($5,800) – Don't fear the Panthers with him
Once again, last week I took a dog of a kicker submarining my ticket. This week I'm paying for the Patriot guy.
Philadelphia ($4,900) – Jameis not immune to a stinker
New York Jets ($4,700) – T.J. Yates vs Revis? We'll take Revis
Baltimore ($4,100) – Case Keenum vs Ravens? An interesting choice
My FanDuel Ticket:
Mark Sanchez, Adrian Peterseon, Charcandrick West, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Matthews, Kamar Aiken, Rob Gronkowski, Stephen Gostkowski, New York Jets Defense
11/12 - DraftKings Week 10: The Opposite Of Money
There are axioms people live by when playing fantasy football and one of them is to avoid playing a running back with a wide receiver from the same team. And if you live that way, last week your ticket was not among the top 10 of DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP. You had to have Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams (this week's price $6,500) and Antonio Brown ($8,800) to be in contention (along with Tennessee's Delanie Walker ($4,700)). And since Brown's % ownership was more than 50% in the biggest 50/50s, if you didn't have him, you most likely did the opposite of doubling your money.
Who was more embarassing last week? The New Orleans defense ($2,300) or Atlanta's whole team (bye)? Since you don't have to fret about the Falcons in Week 10, New Orleans’ opponent Washington will get more play than usual. Think tickets won't be loaded up with Kirk Cousins ($5,200)? All New Orleans defense did last week was put Marcus Mariota ($5,300) on the top ticket. Sharps may fade this play, but it's on the table.
Speaking of the table—never has it been so long. So many players did well last week (was that Jordan Matthews ($6,200) catching a game-winning pass in overtime?) that Week 10 ticket options feel limitless. This is how the game should be constructed. A player’s price should reflect the odds of his success and the % ownership charts should look more like rolling hills rather than sharp peaks. There are still bargains to be found, but they are less sure, and the more expensive players are going to get their bite at the apple too.
Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego and San Francisco are on a bye, while Buffalo plays the Jets on Thursday night. Here are some players to consider for your ticket:
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) – At home against Detroit? Sign me up
Andy Dalton ($6,500) – O Houston! My Houston!
Blake Bortles ($5,600) – Three big receivers, one cruddy Baltimore pass defense
Joe Flacco ($5,500) – Rested and ready to take on the Jags
Matthew Stafford ($5,400) – Like Glen Close in Fatal Attraction
Kirk Cousins ($5,200) – New Orleans has given up 10 TD passes in two weeks
Todd Gurley ($7,300) – Most expensive running back...finally!
Adrian Peterson ($7,100) – Points finally aligned with his impact
DeAngelo Williams ($6,500) – Has a portrait of Dorian Gray in his locker; watch out for his foot
DeMarco Murray ($6,200) – The secret is out about Miami's run defense
LeGarrette Blount ($4,900) – With Lewis' injury Pats backfield seems less muddled
T.J. Yeldon ($4,800) – Nice price
Antonio Brown ($8,800) – Playing without Roethlisberger will temper the enthusiasm
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) – Don't you forget about me
Julian Edelman ($8,200) – Too bad he shares with Gronk as Giants defense comes next
A.J. Green ($7,600) – Let's see if Houston practiced tackling on their bye
Allen Robinson ($6,700) – Licking his chops against the Ravens
Randall Cobb ($6,700) – Had 10 targets last week and now Detroit
Jordan Matthews ($6,200) – For once, the football didn't bounce off his face
Kamar Aiken ($4,500) – Good price for his upside
Marvin Jones ($4,300) – Cheap option against Houston
Davante Adams ($4,200) – Looks like he's back and he's really cheap
Gronk ($8,000) – Gronk's turn now?
Tyler Eifert ($5,800) – Another great matchup
Gary Barnidge ($4,800) – Hoping last week was the exception and not the rule
Jordan Reed ($4,600) – The best Washington play
Arizona ($3,900) – Seattle's offense still not good
Denver ($3,400) – Roughed up against Colts but now Alex Smith
Carolina ($3,300) – Will put Mariota back in his place
My DraftKings Ticket
Blake Bortles. Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, AJ Green, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, Jordan Reed, Kamar Aiken, Carolina Defense
11/12 - FanDuel Week 10: Hitched Giddyup
If you're willing to forgo the $8K+ player, you can build a ticket on FanDuel with only one compromise. (I guess that makes it two compromises.) I'm choosing to make that compromise at quarterback, but you can pick where you have the highest tolerance for risk. Don't get me wrong—I want Aaron Rodgers (this week's price $9,200 OUCH!), too, but this single hitch in my giddyup allows for a great talent against a poor opponent up and down the rest of the ticket. Now, for some reason Ben Roethlisberger is not even listed, but if he plays my ticket will likely get reconstructed.
Normally I try to diversify my FD ticket with respect to DraftKings, but this week the best matchups are just too enticing. Many of the cheaper backs play tough run defenses, and the cheap receivers aren't as cheap here. So, I'm taking solid on both platforms.
Here are some players for your Week 10 consideration:
Aaron Rodgers ($9,200) – Top Green Bay play
Tom Brady ($9,100) – His touchdown total is limited more by his imagination than by the Giants
Andy Dalton ($8,100) – Of all the gins joints in all the world, you had to walk into Houston's
Blake Bortles ($7,800) – Properly priced for his fantasy value; overpriced in the real world
Jameis Winston ($6,800) – Dallas defense is tough on QBs, while Winston is suprisingly tough on defenses
Brian Hoyer ($6,800) – Giddyup, meet hitch
DeMarco Murray ($7,700) – Miami's run defense is all kittens and ice cream
DeAngelo Williams ($7,600) – If healthy, his matchup and usage are tough to turn down
Mark Ingram ($7,500) – Stays on the field
Lamar Miller ($7,200) – Would rather pay for him on DraftKings
Charcandrick West ($6,400) – Denver not a juggernaut against the run, and you'll be alone
Demaryius Thomas ($7,900), Emmanuel Sanders ($7,800) – One will do well, the other will not
Randall Cobb ($7,700) – This price is the sweet spot...oh, and so is Detroit
Mike Evans ($7,700) – Twenty targets, three thumbs
Alshon Jeffery ($7,600) – The right price and on a roll; St. Louis is tough, tho
Allen Robinson ($7,500) – Can't stop taking receivers against Baltimore
Stephon Diggs ($6,600) – Not a bargain, but nice play if Bridgewater joins him on the field
Davante Adams ($5,800) – Not nearly the steal he is on DraftKings
Tyler Eifert ($6,200) – Can't forgo the $400 extra it costs me to not take the next guy
Jordan Reed ($5,800) – I really want to take someone else, but so hard to justify
Julius Thomas ($5,400) – If you're bold enough for a Jag stack
If you listen to me here, I'll only steer you wrong. I'm taking the Rams guy.
Carolina ($4,700) – Except when playing the Saints, Tennessee is a most forgiving opponent
Philadelphia ($4,700) – Could we get another Tannehill stinker?
New Orleans ($4,300) – They should pay you to take them—but contrarians will bite anyway!
My FanDuel Ticket:
Brian Hoyer, DeMarco Murray, DeAngelo Williams, Randall Cobb, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed, Greg Zuerlein, Carolina Defense
11/5 - DraftKings Week 9: How To Be Top Ten
For the first time in a while, the top-ten winning tickets in DraftKings Millionaire Maker GPP all had four players in common: Drew Brees (this week's price $7,200), Todd Gurley ($6,900), Odell Beckham ($8,800) and Benjamin Watson ($4,000). While Gurley was still in the stratosphere with 61.7% ownership, Brees and Beckham were on the wrong side of modest at 3.2% and 6.6% respectively—and that’s where the money was earned. Because of this, Brees and Beckham's % ownership will skyrocket this week and into the future, and their impacts will be somewhat muted.
Injuries have shelved some very desirable options with Le'Veon Bell, Keenan Allen, Steve Smith and Matt Forte among others missing in action. For running back, this will spread the % ownership around more than usual which, for the DFS game, is some small consolation. There now are many relatively attractive options so not everyone has to stay on the still-too-inexpensive Gurley train.
The high-dollar wideouts are very tempting, but you're most likely only affording one this week. Injuries will no doubt focus the public’s laser beams on San Diego's pair of cheap options—Malcolm Floyd ($3,900) and Stevie Johnson ($3,200)—and I’m expecting their % ownership to be extra fat this week, and thus less attractive.
Jacksonville, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Washington return from their bye weeks. Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City and Seattle all hit the bench while Cincinnati and Cleveland play Thursday night.
Here are some options to consider for your ticket:
Tom Brady ($8,500) – Lots of dollars, lots of points
Drew Brees ($7,200) – Can he back it up? Tennessee's defense is middling
Eli Manning ($6,900) – Off a six-TD groove, and here comes Tampa
Philip Rivers ($6,900) – Still priced so nice
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – Last four weeks even better points-per-dollar than Brady
Devonta Freeman ($8,000) – Too expensive this week; he costs you a top wideout
Todd Gurley ($6,900) – Still priced waaaay too low, but much tougher matchup against Minny
Dion Lewis ($6,400) – Receptions written in ink
Chris Ivory ($5,900) – Like him to bounce back against the Jags
Doug Martin ($5,700) – Facing a sieve in the Giants
DeAngelo Williams ($5,500) – Love him this week against Oakland
Jeremy Langford ($4,000) – His time is now against San Diego
Odell Beckham ($8,800) – Back-to-back against sweet Tampa?
Julian Edelman ($8,200) – More expensive than ever to play a Patriots stack
Demaryius Thomas ($7,500) – Sports a great PPG at a reasonable price
Mike Evans ($6,800) – Love the matchup against the Giants but wish his compatriates were healthier
Alshon Jeffery ($6,700) – Two straight weeks of making you money; % ownership up, up and away
Malcom Floyd ($3,900), Stevie Johnson ($3,200) – Join the party
Robert Woods ($3,500) – Strong showing in London as their #1 wideout; watch Watkins’ injury
Gronk ($8,000) – One ticket with him for every ticket without
Ben Watson ($4,000) – Two out of three fantastic weeks
Jacob Tamme ($3,000) – Hot and cold
Heath Miller ($2,700) – Big Ben's security blanket and then those Raiders
Atlanta ($3,400) – Suddenly Blaine Gabbert
Denver ($3,000) – Looking for the pick-six against Luck
Dallas ($2,700) – Way too cheap when facing Bradford
Philadelphia ($2,700) – Ditto but with Cassell
My DraftKings Ticket
Eli Manning, Dion Lewis, DeAngelo Williams, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Heath Miller, Robert Woods, Cowboys Defense
11/5 - FanDuel Week 9: Gurley-lujah!
Hallelujah. FanDuel has priced Todd Gurley (this week's price $9,000) as its top Week 9 running back, so you really have to want him to play him. But the alternate is also true. If you want a good platform to zig, this is your place. Previously great players that have recently disappointed can be found for more of a discount here.
Teams like Green Bay on offense and the Jets on defense are coming off of really bad performances. Matchups that were golden previously have lost some of their luster, so continue to make sure the talent of the players you pick is still supreme.
Here are some interesting players to pick from for Week 9:
Tom Brady ($9,500) – As long as they don't run it 38 times
Ben Roethlisberger ($8,300) – Without Bell, it's on him, and the Raiders are better against the run
Peyton Manning ($7,700) – Do you feel lucky, punk?
Derek Carr ($7,000) – Cheap, cheap, cheap, but it's a bad matchup
LeSean McCoy ($7,800) – Expensive, but Miami is sneaky-bad against the run
Chris Ivory ($7,500) – They need to use him like they did in London
Lamar Miller ($6,900) – Good price and Buffalo also not as good as you think against the run
Jeremy Langford ($6,400) – Not as cheap as you'd like
Antonio Andrews ($5,700) – Six narratives support this choice; Harris hates all of them
Julio Jones ($9,200) – A man among boys; trying to find a way to pay for him
Alshon Jeffery ($7.900) – Much more expensive on FanDuel compared to DraftKings
Amari Cooper ($7,300) – Nice price for his talent
Allen Robinson ($7,200) – Revis is not an island
Martavis Bryant ($6,900) – Disappointing for two straight weeks; makes for a good zig
Jordan Matthews ($6,300) – Remember when there was love?
Ted Ginn ($5,300) – Ten targets last game, and missed eight of them
Antonio Gates ($6000) – Top receiver on his team and second favorite TE to Gronk
Jordan Reed ($5,700) – Will Belichick take him away?
Julius Thomas ($5,600) – Jets defense was poor last week; will it continue?
Martellus Bennett ($5,400) – Another zig due to poor recent production
K – Your guess is as good as mine; I’m taking the Saints guy
Denver ($5,300) – Much cheaper on DraftKings
Pittsburgh ($4,600) – Nice price; will Oakland come back down to earth?
Carolina ($4,400) – What if Green Bay stinks again?
My FanDuel Ticket:
Tom Brady, Chris Ivory, Antonio Andrews, Julio Jones, Martavis Bryant, Teddy Ginn, Antonio Gates, Kai Forbath, Steelers Defense
10/29 - DraftKings Week 8: All Happy Tickets
I believe it was Leo Tolstoy who said, "All happy tickets are alike; each unhappy ticket is unhappy in its own way." And for the third week in a row, the happy tickets were those who stuck with players in strong NFL matchups. In fact, the highest-owned player, Todd Gurley (this week's price $6,300) reached 67% ownership in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker G.P.P. and a whopping 86% in the larger 50/50s. And he rewarded his believers with 35 points against the lowly Browns rush defense. Even lesser owned guys like Lamar Miller (Thursday game this week) and Mike Evans ($6,800) were darlings of the sharp set and they paid off in spades. So what if DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) and Larry Fitzgerald ($7,700) disappointed? They were rightly part of that happy subset of attactive-looking matchups; if you stuck with the tasty matchups, in general your ticket still had a strong chance of cashing.
So check the matchups. Look for San Diego and Cleveland against the run, and Tampa and Baltimore against the pass. I would love to take every player against Houston. Too bad they're playing Tennessee this week. But you know what I mean. Pay attention to that OPRK (opponent rank) column next to the players you select and justify your choice matchup wise or, even better, check out the Harris Index.
Also look for the teams fresh off a bye. Recent bye team Tampa may not have beaten Washington, but Evans, Jameis Winston ($5,200), and Doug Martin ($5,500) combined for 77 DraftKings points. Similary, the Rams defense ($3,200) was the top scoring D (highest % ownership, too), and I mentioned Gurley. Chicago, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Denver have just had their byes (although Green Bay and Denver play each other, which might cancel that advantage out). So Bears and Bengals then! They've been staring at the flaws of Minnesota and Pittsburgh for two weeks.
So don't make your ticket unhappy in its own way. Don't go out on a limb that's hard to justify.
Miami and New England play Thursday night, Detroit and Kansas City play early Sunday morning in London, while Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Washington have byes.
Here are some players who might look good on a ticket:
Cam Newton ($6,800) – Versus run or pass Indy is weak, and Cam does both
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700) – So many weapons, obviously make sure he’s active
Philip Rivers ($6,600) – Played like Jane but scored like Tarzan; great matchup against Ravens
Andy Dalton ($6,000) – Top scoring QB in the field, off a bye, in good matchup...and priced 12th?
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – Cheap and off a bye; Minny is strong, though
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) – Cheap and competent
Devonta Freeman ($8,000) – Still want him despite only getting 18 points last week
Todd Gurley ($6,300) – Don't see anyone who had him last week passing on him this week
Justin Forsett ($6,100) – Did great at home against Cleveland three weeks back; now it's San Diego
Doug Martin ($5,500) – Priced too nice
Chris Johnson ($4,600) – Great matchup against Cleveland
Julio Jones ($9,200) – A matchup to pay for against Tampa
Antonio Brown ($7,800), Martavis Bryant ($5,300) – Oh, I will have a stack with Big Ben
Keenan Allen ($7,700) – He only scores 30-plus when I don't have him; great matchup
A.J. Green ($7,600), Marvin Jones ($4,200) – Off a bye, alone or together
Alshon Jeffery ($6,400) – Man against boys against Detroit; let's see what he can do off a bye
Eric Decker ($5,300) – Oakland won't be as good as last week, and still weak against the pass
Stephon Diggs ($4,800) – Ownership % was high last week; expect higher this week
Nate Washington ($3,600) – DeAndre Jr.? (okay, not really)
Tyler Eifert ($5,300), Martellus Bennett ($4,900) – Bengals or Bears footie pajamas for me
Antonio Gates ($4,800) – If he plays, I'll take him
Gary Barnidge ($4,700) – Last of the expensive guys, but you almost have to take one
Ben Watson ($3,500) – Unless you like this guy against the Giants
Cardinals ($4,000) – Will face gimpy McCown or healthy Manziel
Packers ($3,300) – If rested Broncos haven't figured things out, rested Packers could sting them
Panthers ($3,200) – Indy is grist for their mill
Rams ($3,200) – Another great matchup against Niners
Texans ($3,100) – Not really; just seeing if you're paying attention
My DraftKings Ticket
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Todd Gurley, Justin Forsett, Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, Eric Decker, Martellus Bennett, Nate Washington, Rams Defense
10/29 - FanDuel Week 8: Justifiable Hysteria
Welcome to FanDuel, where the prices are more likely to reflect recent justifiable hysteria. Todd Gurley (this week's price $8,100) is still too cheap, but at least FanDuel isn’t oblivious to a changing landscape the way DraftKings can often be. But, you know the guy on FanDuel I'm finding the most attractive? Greg Olsen ($6,400). You're not paying an extra premium for him like you are over at DraftKings, so Olsen is where my ticket begins. You most likely are choosing from a very limited number of expensive tight ends anyway (and if you're not—good luck to you!).
Kicker again. Ugh. I’m going with the guy on the Bears, but you could convince me of 20 other options.
Here are some matchup-friendly players to consider for your ticket. I'm trying to not just take the blinking-red-neon-light guys who we know will be on many, many tickets:
Cam Newton ($8,000) – Who better to pair with Oslen?
Joe Flacco ($7,400) – Rivers ($8,500) isn't the only good play in this game, and Joe's much cheaper
Jameis Winston ($6,600) – Hard to beat the price
Matt Forte ($8,200) – I predict Minnesota has its hands full this week
Chris Ivory ($7,700) – Disappointing last week, but like his chances against Oakland
Gio Bernard ($6,700) – Like him over Jeremy Hill ($6,300) against Pittsburgh
Danny Woodhead ($6,100) – Underpriced for his production, and Gordon’s struggles
Julio Jones ($9,200) – Really want him; can't afford him
Antonio Brown ($8,400) – This could be the week for 35+ points
Demaryius Thomas ($8,100) – The forgotten man?
Stevie Johnson ($5,900) – Returning to form against a poor passing D
Kendall Wright ($5,900) – Best option if you want to go against Houston
Marvin Jones ($5,400) – At this price, they're giving this big-play threat away
Greg Olsen ($6,400) – It does tend to be boom or bust with him"
Jimmy Graham ($6,100) – Yeah, me neither
Ladarius Green ($5,300) – Hard to save money on tight end; here’s a possibility if Gates is out
K – Pick someone on a team you like but don't love
Seattle ($5,200) – If you think Cassel is terrible (p.s. – he’s terrible)"
Carolina ($4,800) – Nice value
Chicago ($4,200) – If you want to play a team off a bye
My FanDuel Ticket
am Newton, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, Antonio Brown, Kendall Wright, Marvin Jones, Robbie Gould, Panthers Defense
10/22 - DraftKings Week 7: They Are Who We Thought They Were!
For the second week in a row: they are who we thought they were! (Pounds lectern.) The high-percent-ownership players panned out, with the highest, DeAndre Hopkins (this week's price $8,600), scoring the most points. Synchronicity. So many players went boom that 200 points brought in only $75 in DraftKings Millionaire Maker. And one ticket got just about everything perfect, including late eligibles like Alshon Jeffery (bye) and Steve Smith ($6,200).
This week, the loveable first-choice wideouts like Hopkins and Julian Edelman ($8,200) finally have first-tier prices. Not so with the running backs. As you will see, several of them practically choose themselves—making differentiation difficult. So be sure you really want these guys, as you'll be swimming in a huge pool. However, the cheap quarterbacks are still coming through, so you can confidently pick one all up and down the price points.
With so many tasty NFL matchups, it's a shame that we only get to pick nine players. The Raiders' shaky pass defense travels to face the Chargers's shaky run defense. Rested Todd Gurley ($5,000) gets the Browns' beleaguered run defense. The Cardinals passing attack battles against woeful Ravens secondary. Washington can barely field a team, making many Buccaneers attractive. And I'd take Steve Smith against a backhoe if they were matched up.
All four teams coming off a bye last week won, with three of them producing fantasy gold. That makes the bye teams 5-1 so far this year. Cowboys, Rams, Bucs and Raiders have all just had that week off, so I'm paying a little extra attention to their matchups. This week's byes are Bears, Broncos, Packers and Bengals, and with those lost players our fantasy world got smaller. Seahawks and Niners play the Thursday night game while Bills and Jags have a 9 a.m. game in England.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) – A top choice if he plays against the woeful Chiefs pass defense
Carson Palmer ($6,700) – Licking his chops against the Ravens
Philip Rivers ($6,500) – 503 yards last week; here come the Raiders
Brian Hoyer ($5,300) – One of many nice cheap options
Jameis Winston ($5,100) – Off a bye against an opponent who's reeling
Devonta Freeman ($7,900) – Finally expensive, but we're not shying away
Latavius Murray ($6,100) – Love the matchup against the Chargers
Chris Ivory ($5,800) – Don't think DraftKings is paying attention to him
Todd Gurley ($5,000) – Off a bye against the Browns? $2,000 too cheap
Doug Martin ($4,900) – Off a bye against banged-up Washington? Might as well be free
Christine Michael ($3,000) – Minimum priced
Julio Jones ($9,100) – Want to see him score big again before paying top price
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) – Still want him and with the cheap RBs you can afford him
Brandon Marshall ($7,800) – The Jets will have to throw against the Pats
Keenan Allen ($7,700) – Should cost even more
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400), John Brown ($5,500) – Alone or together against the Ravens
Mike Evans ($6,400) – If you like him, now is the time
Steve Smith ($6,200) – Take him anywhere against anybody
Martavis Bryant ($4,700) – He's white hot and will be highly owned
Stefon Diggs ($4,200) – Can he do it three games in a row?
Gronk ($8,100) – Too pricy when you can have the next guy
Antonio Gates ($5,000) – Have you heard the one about the Raiders pass D?
Gary Barnidge ($4,900) – You've come a long way, baby
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($3,200) – Love him if he plays
Falcons ($3,200) – Titans are collapsing
Panthers ($3,100) – Expect an Eagles regression
Steelers ($2,600) – Not afraid of the Chiefs anymore
Buccaneers ($2,600) – Injuries have just decimated Washington
Rams ($2,400) – Two weeks to game-plan for Josh McCown
My DraftKings Ticket
Philip Rivers, Todd Gurley, Latavius Murray, Keenan Allen, Steve Smith, John Brown, Antonio Gates, Martavis Bryant, Rams Defense
10/22 - FanDuel Week 7: Points, Not Value
It's a whole new game. Todd Gurley (this week's price on FanDuel is $7,400) and Doug Martin ($7,200) aren’t hiding in bargain bins, like you see at DraftKings. You have to really want them to put them on your ticket. Martavis Bryant ($6,900) is priced the same as Steve Smith and Jeremy Maclin, instead of just behind Pierre Garcon ($6,100) as he is on DK. Never have the algorithmic differences between these two DFS sites been more apparent.
And that means analyzing this week’s NFL matchups is paramount. You care much more about pure outcome rather than outcome per dollar. I'll be squeezing quarterback, kicker and defense tight, so I can get six great matchups in the running back, receiver and tight end slots. I can't predict kickers or defenses anyway, and when you see Landry Jones ($6,000) on my ticket, please be kind. I'm $2,000 short for the QB I really want, Philip Rivers ($8,000).
Here are some players to consider for your FanDuel ticket:
Andrew Luck ($8,900) – Could see building a ticket around him
Philip Rivers ($8,000) – Twice great, twice very good, twice a turkey
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($7,100) – May have to throw a lot against the Pats
Landry Jones ($6,000) – KC is miserable against the pass.
Adrian Peterson ($8,900) – Starting the card right with him
Devonta Freeman ($8,700), Chris Ivory ($7,800) – Top two producers, would love to pair 'em up
Todd Gurley ($7,400) – Love both the talent and the matchup
Doug Martin ($7,200) – Imagine Tampa's game plan is a picture of his face
Lamar Miller ($6,700) – Nice price and nice matchup against the Texans
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,200) – Most expensive player on FanDuel
Brandon Marshall ($8,200) – The ball will hit his hands and often good things will happen
Julian Edelman ($8,000) – Many will stay away due to matchup and last week's below-average results
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,800) – Hard to imagine a more tempting matchup than the Ravens
Jordan Matthews ($6,600) – He really wants to catch the ball
Travis Kelce ($6,000) – He may be all KC has
Antonio Gates ($5,800) – So far on every one of my tickets
Delanie Walker ($5,500) – Atlanta is sneaky-bad against the TE; better price on DraftKings
Justin Tucker ($4,800) – Top talent
Matt Prater ($4,500) – Pinching pennies
Kansas City ($4,600) – Want to go against Landry Jones’ first start?
Tampa Bay ($4,000) – Best among the cheap options
My FanDuel Ticket
Landry Jones, Adrian Peterson, Lamar Miller, Brandon Marshall, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Gates, Matt Prater, Tampa Bay Defense
10/15 – DraftKings Week 6: The Sunday Crossword
Not only were the scores high in the DraftKings Week 5 Millionaire Maker, but the players that scored were very well owned. Sky-high percent ownership plays like Tom Brady (this week’s price $8,100...ouch!), Le'Veon Bell ($8,500), Devonta Freeman (plays Thursday night) and Dion Lewis ($5,800) all came through, along with clever plays like Marquess Wilson ($4,000), Willie Snead (plays Thursday night) and Doug Martin (bye). If you wanted to make money in the GPPs last week, everyone on your team needed to score.
For this week, the salaries are finally catching up to the production and the puzzle is looking more diabolical. And that makes choosing players more fun than ever. The cheaper plays are not as attractive as they were in the first month of the season, and I'm predicting a much more level percent ownership field. Even Week 6’s NFL matchups are challenging.
After the top few running backs, RB salaries fall precipitously this week; wide receiver salaries stay expensive a couple pages deep. Every tight end you'd want costs big money, even Gary Barnidge ($4,400) and his thighmasters. And quarterbacks at just about any price point have scored well all season long, making it hard to justify paying big dollars for one.
Atlanta and New Orleans play on Thursday night along with Tampa Bay, Oakland, Dallas and St. Louis having their byes. Here are some players who look attractive this week.
Tom Brady ($8,100) – Are you made of money?
Eli Manning ($6,800) – An attractive upper-middle class play, if you must
Blake Bortles ($5,200) – I know! We're getting sucked in to his matchup against Houston
Jay Cutler ($5,200) – Lots of weapons to throw to as Detroit falls apart
Colin Kaepernick ($5,000) – Minimum-priced and playing a terrible Ravens pass defense
Matt Forte ($7,100) – Very rich but often satisfying
Arian Foster ($7,000) – 10 targets last week!
Eddie Lacy ($6,300) – Starting to get cheaper and if not now against the Chargers then when?
Dion Lewis ($5,800), LeGarrette Blount ($4,400) – Traditionally a Blount game against the Colts, but Lewis has the talent
Charcandrick West ($4,000) – The new toy is priced so nice
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) – Houston throws to him again and again and again and again
Julian Edelman ($7,600) – Can't stop taking him
Brandon Marshall ($7,100) – Was hoping he'd be cheaper
Allen Robinson ($5,900), Allen Hurns ($5,000) – Which one? Both? Neither? So hard to pick
Eric Decker ($4,900) – Now that's better
Anquan Boldin ($4,300) – Hot last week and great matchup
Gronk ($7,600) – Tough price and burned people last week, but watch him bounce back
Tyler Eifert ($4,900) – Hot and cold
Antonio Gates ($4,600) – Dream start to his season
Julius Thomas ($4,000) or Delanie Walker ($3,600) – You may find yourself priced into them
Derek Carrier ($2,500) – If you're broke
Broncos ($3,700) – Double digits every week
Packers ($3,200) – Can get to the quarterback
Jets ($3,100) – Washington can't play two good games in a row can they?
Browns ($2,200) – Jeez, Peyton! Broncos offense is third-easiest against opposing defenses
My DraftKings Ticket:
Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Arian Foster, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, Anquan Boldin, Browns defense
10/15 - FanDuel Week 6: Lower Dollars = Lower Odds
Finally, the FanDuel tickets and DraftKings tickets are converging. Having to pay for running backs in both formats results in shoehorning the same kind of player into the other slots, save for whatever chucklehead kicker invades my FanDuel dreams.
FanDuel does not offer the same value at quarterback that you can find at DraftKings. It's getting difficult to find a cheaper play at any position except defense and kicker. Cheaper prices are reflecting lower odds of success more realistically this week than ever before. Thus, analyzing the NFL matchups is paramount.
Here are some players to think about for Week 6:
Andrew Luck ($8,600) – If he plays, interesting contrarian move
Carson Palmer ($8,000) – Not scared of Pittsburgh
Eli Manning ($7,800) – In a groove
Andy Dalton ($7,600) – Great option for average points/dollar
Brian Hoyer ($6,700) – Like his price if he can keep his job
Le'Veon Bell ($9,000) – Keeps justifying his price
Marshawn Lynch ($8,300) – Rawls' long run has him rushing back
DeMarco Murray ($7,600) – One week and counting; can he repeat?
T.J. Yeldon ($6,800) – If he's healthy, great matchup against Houston
Giovanni Bernard ($6,700) – Hits Buffalo where they're weakest
Odell Bechkam ($9,100) – If healthy, such a tasty spot against the Iggles
Antonio Brown ($8,600) – Ultimate low % ownership play
Allen Robinson ($6,700) – Still not paying full price
Donte Moncrief ($6,200) – Have a feeling the Colts will need to throw against the Pats
Marquess Wilson ($5,400) – If you've overspent elsewhere
Antonio Gates ($5,500) – Better price on FanDuel than DraftKings
Jordan Cameron ($5,400) – Dolphins are rested and rebooted?
Larry Donnell ($5,300) – Duck Hands needed if everyone else is hurt
Steven Hauschka ($5,000) – Seattle's offense just cruddy enough to get him long kicks
Justin Tucker ($4,800) – Clutch
Robbie Gould ($4,500) – If you need the money
Seahawks ($5,000) – Looking to overwhelm Carolina's tepid options
Patriots ($4,800) – If you believe in revenge
Packers ($4,700) – San Diego's offensive line is dreadful
Vikings ($4,500) – Worried Kansas City could fall apart
My FanDuel Ticket:
Eli Manning, Le'Veon Bell, Gio Bernard, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, Duck Hands, Robbie Gould, Packers defense
10/8 - DraftKings Week 5: Crashing Down To Earth
Wowee. After Week 3’s explosion in fantasy scoring, Week 4 was more pedestrian. The winning ticket on DraftKings Millionaire Maker scored 100 points fewer than last week! You only had to have Devonta Freeman (this week’s price $6,300) to make the top 10 amid a mix of players who scored in the top third. Heck even Blake Bortles ($5,100) made the winning ticket.
Now with four data points—i.e., four weeks’ worth of games—a baseline is emerging for each player. Very few players who scored big for the first time like Tavon Austin ($4,300) or Doug Martin ($4,700) were actually part of top tickets. So, thankfully, if you missed out on them, so did the winners. And all of the great wideouts from Week 3 were disappointing to mediocre; perhaps NFL defenses are becoming adept at taking away the hot numbers of the week before. With four weeks of data we can now attempt to pick players in the kinds of matchups that have previously made them successful, rather than just remembering the last thing we saw. Which is nice, because I'm as guilty of that as anyone.
Minnesota, Carolina, Miami, and the Jets are on a bye, and Indy and Houston play on Thursday night.
Here are some players I'm looking at for Week 5.
Tom Brady ($7,800) – Tom certainly remembers the Cowboys pass defense getting scorched
Matt Ryan ($6,700) – Who doesn't want the king on Atlanta's chessboard?
Carson Palmer ($6,600) – Detroit has been hot-and-cold against QBs
Philip Rivers ($6,200) – Great in Week 1 and Week 4 and love his home matchup against the Steelers
Alex Smith ($5,500) – A cheap option against the Bears
Jamaal Charles ($7,800) – As consistent a running back as there is
Devonta Freeman ($6,300) – Even now, still cheap for his potential
Karlos Williams ($5,700) – Only if he plays, after suffering a concussion last week
Dion Lewis ($4,800) – Dallas can't cover those pass-catching RBs; a great flex option
Duke Johnson ($4,600) – Did we miss our best chance?
Danny Woodhead ($4,600) – The Chargers may be missing Floyd and Stevie, and Woody catches
Julio Jones ($9,200) – The Falcons never needed him last week
Randall Cobb ($7,500) – Don't stop believing
Keenan Allen ($7,200) – As I said, the rest of those Chargers wideouts are banged up
Julian Edelman ($7,000) – He's ba-aaack (and not very expensive)
Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) – It's alive!
James Jones ($5,700) – Wideout 1A in Green Bay?
Leonard Hankerson ($4,000) – Two great weeks out of four, and 25 targets the past three weeks
Gronk ($7,500) – Never more expensive; might have to play him at flex and choose another TE
Travis Kelce ($5,200) – I like everyone against the Bears
Charles Clay ($4,100) – Talent plus opportunity
Owen Daniels ($2,700) – You've yet to go wrong if you took a TE against the Raiders
Falcons ($3,200) – Can they exploit another bad QB, facing Kirk Cousins?
Packers ($3,100) – Love those sacks
Giants ($2,900) – Facing Kaepernick mean sacks and balls thrown out of bounds
Bengals ($2,800) – Really cheap, plus facing a secretly cruddy Seahawks offense
My DraftKings Ticket:
Philip Rivers, Jamaal Charles, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, James Jones, Owen Daniels, Dion Lewis, Bengals defense
10/8 - FanDuel Week 5: Pinching Pennies
FanDuel is the place to spend more on running backs, and we still want at least one top-shelf wideout. So the plan is: we're spending on studs until the money runs out, leaving very little dough for our last receiver and for our defense and kicker. (Oh kicker, how much do we love thee? Not once. We have loved thee not once.)
As I’ve said before, FanDuel makes you pay more for recent success. Nowhere is this more apparent than when you try to find a cheap wideout to play with all your superstuds. In fact, this week they made my decision for me, as I could only find one WR who’d averaged more than 10 points/game. I haven't had great luck picking my last receiver anyway, so I’m happy to have the decision taken from me.
Here are some options on FanDuel for Week 5:
Tom Brady ($8,800) – Who wouldn’t want him?
Marcus Mariota ($7,400) – Average points per game much higher than his price
Josh McCown ($6,700) – If you need to save, you could do worse than Baltimore pass D
Jamaal Charles ($9,100) – Third-highest average points per game behind Bell and Freeman
Le'Veon Bell ($9,000) – Vick needs him to carry and carry again; my overall first choice
Devonta Freeman ($7,600) – Don't be afraid to ask him for even more stats
Dion Lewis ($6,900) – Not as attractive here with the full PPR on DraftKings
Todd Gurley ($6,700) – Really cheap on DraftKings, moderately cheap on FanDuel
Doug Martin ($6,400) – Can he do it twice in a row?
Odell Beckham ($9,000) – The biggest WR price, not sure it’s justified by his production
Julian Edelman ($7,700) – Back from a bye and ready to chew up that Dallas defense
Martavis Bryant ($6,100) – Priced high before ever seeing the field
Kendall Wright ($5,900) – Also back from a bye and facing a surprisingly leaky Bills pass D
Percy Harvin ($5,400) – The last dregs of respectability
Willie Snead ($5,300) – Are you feeling lucky?
Tyler Eifert ($5,600) – Tough matchup against Seahawks, but good relative price
Antonio Gates ($5,500) – If he performs like Ladarius Green+ he's worth it
Caleb Sturgis ($5,100) – Why so expensive?
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,000) – Top kicker so far
Josh Lambo ($4,500) – Who costs the least? Lambo does, but that doesn't mean he won’t score
Broncos ($4,900) – Highest-scoring defense
Patriots ($4,700) – A replay of the New England/Buffalo game?
Tampa Bay ($4,000) – The cheapest again, but stopping Bortles isn’t impossible
My FanDuel Ticket:
Tom Brady, Jamaal Charles, Le'Veon Bell, Julian Edelman, Kendall Wright, Percy Harvin, Tyler Eifert, Josh Lambo, Tampa Bay Defense
10/1 - DraftKings Week 4: Can They Go Higher?
Three hundred and one! That was the winning score on DraftKings' Millionaire Maker – a whopping 33.4 points per player. In fact, just to win the average 50/50 in Week 3, you needed 170 points or almost 19 a player. Points were everywhere! Eleven of the 16 games hit the Vegas over, and many by a mile! Think Julian Edelman's 16.5 fat fantasy points had you on the road to victory? Nope, you're in the red just like the rest of us dupes.
Last week’s millionaire-making ticket was close to perfect. Sure they could've had a better defense or QB, but not by much. Almost all the top 10 tickets had Devonta Freeman (this week’s price: $5,200) and Greg Olsen ($5,400). Thirty-five-plus-point receivers were everywhere, and you had to have them to cash out the big money.
Have you noticed that Keenan Allen ($7,000) is trolling us? With weekly point totals of 40.3, 2.6 and 34.6, his percent ownership numbers have essentially been the inverse of his scoring. Are you with him this week, in a very tasty-looking home matchup against the Browns? I’m warning you. He's the George R. R. Martin of football and you're Jon Snow.
With New England and Tennessee on a bye, Miami and the Jets flying to England, and Pittsburgh and Baltimore squaring off on Thursday night, the group of available players to choose from is smaller this week; in particular, many of the attractive wide receivers have been eliminated. (And Gronk!) The WRs that remain eligible for Week 4 will have high prices and high percent ownership. And you’ll need to accommodate some of them, so cheap running backs will be at an even higher premium. The ability to create a competent yet differentiable ticket is as tricky as ever. But that's the fun part!
Here are some players who could help this weekend.
Cam Newton ($7,000) – Piling up the points
Philip Rivers ($6,100) – First time at home, he was QB2; and now the Browns
Andy Dalton ($5,900) – DraftKings is triple-dog-daring us to take him
Tyrod Taylor ($5,800) – Producing every week
Latavius Murray ($6,300) – Many unattractive RB matchups this week, but Murray v. Bears not one
Mark Ingram ($6,000) – Can the Saints run roughshod over the Cowboys like the Falcons did?
Joseph Randle ($5,500) – Don't love the Saints defense either
Melvin Gordon ($4,900) – Browns turn running backs into stars
Ryan Mathews ($3,800) – If he gets the start, the price is so hard to turn down
Karlos Williams ($3,400) – Ditto; how else will you afford Julio?
Julio Jones ($9,300) – Top price for the belle of the ball
A.J. Green ($7,600) – Chiefs pass defense did not impress
Randall Cobb ($7,400), James Jones ($5,300) – Alone or stacked
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) – Still a great value; look for sky-high percent ownership
Amari Cooper ($6,300) – That talent is undeniable
Anquan Boldin ($4,800) – We all need someone cheaper, and it'll never be as bad as last week
Greg Olsen ($5,400) – Prisoner of the moment
Tyler Eifert ($4,600) – Liking a Bengals stack
Martellus Bennett ($4,500) – Raiders have yet to stop a TE
Charles Clay ($3,300) – Prices for tight ends going up; his still reasonable
Cardinals ($3,400) – First choice and another nice matchup against Rams
Chargers ($2,800) – Have we mentioned the Browns?
Redskins ($2,600) – Three extra days of game planning to prove the Eagles still stink
My Week 4 DraftKings Ticket:
Andy Dalton, Melvin Gordon, Karlos Williams, AJ Green, Randall Cobb, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Eifert, Amari Cooper, Cardinals defense
10/1 - Week 4 on FanDuel: Gotta Look The Other Way!
FanDuel reacts to prior weeks’ scoring more violently than DraftKings does. Thus, the prices for players are much quicker to adjust. FanDuel has Devonta Freeman (this week’s price is $7,200) $500 more than Jeremy Hill ($6,700) whereas DraftKings prices Freeman $1,300 less than Hill. It's a different game!
So, when you’re looking for the cheap RB to augment the rest of your roster, you might have to look at disappointments: Hill, C.J. Anderson ($6.900), Jonathan Stewart ($6,300) or Doug Martin ($6,400). I considered each one before finally deciding to pay more for my RBs, but it cost me a receiver. You can't just select the shiny new toy who did well on FanDuel last week, because you're paying through the nose. You have to really want them, and not fall into them because the price is sweet. There are a few cheaper choices you can make, but they're not the slam dunks they are at DraftKings.
So with the lack of bargains and the compressed salary structure, matchups are even more important. Here are some players I find interesting:
Matt Ryan ($8,400) – First guy who's affordable
Tyrod Taylor ($7,600) – No longer giving him away
Philip Rivers ($7,400) – Best price of that middle tier sweet spot
Jameis Winston ($6,400) – Surprising production for the price
Mark Ingram ($8,100) – Matchup is sweet but price is high
Latavius Murray ($7,500) – With trades on top of injuries, not sure Bears are even competing
Karlos Williams ($6,300) – Attractive but not a must start due to price
Thomas Rawls ($6,000) – One of the few potential bargains
Ryan Mathews ($5,900) – Can he go back to back? Watch out for the weather
Julio Jones ($9,300) & Odell Beckham ($9,100) – Practically unaffordable
Keenan Allen ($7,700) – Very nice matchup against the Browns
Mike Evans ($7,500) – Now need to convert the targets into points
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) – Julio production without the respect
Donte Moncrief ($6,300) – He’s produced well for the price
James Jones ($6,000) – Finally, a great price!
TE – I'm actually paying for a top-three guy here:
Jimmy Graham ($6,600), Travis Kelce ($6,400) or Greg Olsen ($6,300)
K – Still killing me; I’m upping my price again:
Steven Hauschka ($5,100), Brandon McManus ($5,000) or Matt Bryant ($4,800)
DEF – I want the Cards but may have to settle for a lower price somewhere:
Cardinals ($5,000), Broncos ($4,700) or Chargers ($4,400)
Philip Rivers, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, James Jones, Greg Olsen, Steven Hauschka, Chargers defense
9/24 - Stacking In Week 3 For DraftKings
Week 2 was the week of the wide receiver.
More than 10 WRs scored 25-plus points, and this meant a big increase in the millionaire-making point totals: the top General Prize Pool (G.P.P.) tickets scored 30 more points in Week 2 than in Week 1. However, similar numbers were needed to win 50/50s (15.3 points/player) and $1,000 in the big G.P.P. (22.6 points/player).
The top ten G.P.P. rosters had a lot of Gronk (his salary this week $7,400) and a lot of DeAngelo Williams ($4,400). In fact, stacked tickets of Patriots and Steelers were super successful. One Patriots fan had all of the standard Patriots except Dion Lewis ($4,200) and that omission cost her a million-plus dollars. And to be in contention, selecting four of the top ten wideouts was an absolute requirement.
We've only got two data points in 2015, but points per game is starting to become an important statistic when choosing a player. It reflects either consistency or high upside. This week, unless you're named Le'Veon Bell ($7,500) or a defense, I want to see at least 10 points/game. And soon that number will jump to 15.
Once again, there are viable options from $4,000 to $8,000-plus at WR and RB with tiers and tiers galore. And this leads to myriad strategies for roster construction. So far this year, I've personally done much better stacking teams than I have cherrypicking players in what I thought were top situations, or who had top matchups. Stacked tickets I'm building for Week 3 will include include several Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks and Steelers. And they're all getting paired with Adrian Peterson ($7,500) as he takes on a Chargers run defense I don’t particularly love.
QB (even when I’m not stacking)
Tom Brady ($7,700) – I’m buying what he's selling, though Belichick can change tacks instantly
Russell Wilson ($7,200) – If not now, versus the Bears, then when?
Carson Palmer ($6,600) – Still cheap; DraftKings doesn't believe
Latavius Murray ($5,800) – Clear RB1 against a poor Browns run defense
Devonta Freeman ($4,600) – Has the Falcons backfield all to himself this week
Isaiah Crowell ($4,500) – He improved on Week 1
T.J. Yeldon ($4,400) – Patriots run defense still feels leaky
James Starks ($3,000) – Minimum price; a bargain if Lacy doesn’t play
Jordan Matthews ($6,900) – I can’t quit him, even with the prospect of Revis
Jarvis Landry ($6,400) – So consistent it's scary
Brandon Marshall ($6,200) – Clear WR1 now with Decker hurt
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,800) and John Brown ($5,100) – Mini stack of love
Terrence Williams ($4,600) – Is there anyone left in that Cowboys receiving corps?
Percy Harvin ($4,400) – Miami pass defense gave up bombs to Jacksonville
Travis Benjamin ($4,200) – The sharps will ignore because of too few targets; I'm with the suckers
Doug Baldwin ($4,000) – I like the target potential of the Seahawks' wideouts
Rob Gronkowski ($7,400) – Harder and harder to stay away
Jared Cook ($2,800) – Top Rams target against a bad Steeler pass defense
Gary Barnidge ($2,500) – Raiders defense has given up four TE TDs in two games
Seahawks ($3,400) – Clausen and the Bears coming to the Pacific Northwest
Broncos ($3,000) – I like them to beat up a weary Stafford, assuming he plays
Jets ($3,000) – Chip Kelly picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue
My Week 3 DraftKings Ticket:
Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Jarvis Landry, Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin, Gronk, Travis Benjamin, Jets defense
9/24 - Liquored-Up Idiot Kickers on Week 3 FanDuel
The liquored-up idiot kickers have been crippling me on FanDuel. Kicker points count just as much as anyone else’s. You’d think, then, that kicker is now my first priority, but I still have a hard time paying for one. I mean: do I want Brandon McManus ($4,900) or Jarvis Landry ($7,600), when one might cost me the other? How fun is it to root for the Broncos to get stopped at the right spot on the field? Yes! Fourth Down!
So, this week on FanDuel, I'm paying for a kicker. Losing Landry allows me my choice of Adrian Peterson ($8,900) and Jamaal Charles ($8,700). I think Peterson is the better bet, although by no means a slam dunk. HarrisFootball ranks disagree!
This also looks to be the place for a Cardinals stack. Palmer ($8,100), Fitzgerald ($6,700), and Brown ($6,000) are all priced well in their rapidly compressing tiers.
Some other players I'm considering on FanDuel:
Russell Wilson ($8,400) – I want those rushing yards and TDs.
Ryan Tannehill ($8,000) – Finally home after a nice game
Latavius Murray ($7,000) – Third-tier price, first-tier matchup
Joseph Randle ($6,500) – Cheaper and cheaper, but needed more and more
David Johnson ($6,000) – His last week at this price?
Emmanuel Sanders ($8,100) – Great matchup against the Rams
Julian Edelman ($7,700) – My favorite play this week
Rishard Matthews ($5,700) – Lots of yards for the price
Greg Olsen ($5,900) – This will be his week
Kyle Rudolph ($5,300) – His price is better on FanDuel
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,000) – I’ll be taking McManus, but these three guys would do
Mason Crosby ($5,000)
Stephen Hauschka ($5,000)
Seahawks ($5,300) – All my tickets have one of these three defenses
NY Jets ($4,500)
My FanDuel Ticket:
Carson Palmer, Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Greg Olsen, Brandon McManus, Broncos defense
9/17 - Applying Week 1's DraftKings Lessons To Week 2
With Week 1 in the books, we now have one data point instead of zero. That's nice. But a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing! We can start to see some tendencies which both shatter and confirm our biases, but what we saw may not carry forward. At least we have some grasp of what points are needed. Last week, to win $1,000 in the DraftKings G.P.P., you needed 22 points per player. To win in a 50/50, you needed more like 15 points/player.
How'd The Winners Do It? In Week 1, no single player was required to get a top-10 finish in the G.P.P., but you had to have either Matt Forte (this weeks salary is $7,700) or Carlos Hyde ($5,100), and you had to have two of Julio Jones ($8,900), Keenan Allen ($7,100) and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400). Mixing in some very high-ownership players like Chris Ivory ($4,700), Jordan Matthews ($7,100) and Jarvis Landry ($5,900) helped. Other than that, you needed a top-third quarterback, tight end and defense. Not impossible right? You had to hit on the high-scoring guys (very difficult), pick the right kind of chalk (not nearly so difficult) and not screw anything up (perhaps the most difficult of all).
So do we try win this week’s matchups with last week’s winning players? It's so tempting! Keenan Allen caught 15 balls and was DraftKings’ third-highest scorer, and that was without a TD. Can Allen get all those targets again? I'm nervous that San Diego’s game in Cincinnati will not provide the same opportunity. Julio Jones was the only expensive reciever who justified his price. Can I afford him again against the Giants? Again: very tempting. And I see no reason while Forte and Hyde can't get the same amount of touches (29 and 28) this week.
Finally, now that New England is playing a weekend game, another question emerges:
To Gronk Or Not To Gronk? Last year, it was important to have Rob Gronkowski ($7,300) when he was great. But the extraordinary number of tight end touchdowns in Week 1 muddles this a bit. I can see many tickets pairing Gronk with the slightly cheaper Week 1 star running backs, Hyde and Ivory. But if you want the more expensive Forte, you might find yourself needing to leave off Gronk, and filling in with one of those TE TD makers from last week. For my part, I’m leaning away from Gronk, and will hope to fill in with better value at his position.
Here are some players I'm considering for Week 2:
Aaron Rodgers ($8,300) – Very motivated
Sam Bradford ($6,900) – The Eagles still have me intrigued
Carson Palmer ($6,700) – Got a great price relative to his tier and he’s playing Chicago
Andy Dalton ($5,800) – Suddenly lots of weapons
Marshawn Lynch ($7,200) – Didn't score but had a nice combo of runs and targets
Eddie Lacy ($7,200) – Ditto, but scored
Mark Ingram ($5,900) – Brees tosses it to his RBs and Tampa’s defense stinks
Jonathan Stewart ($5,500) – Really underpriced
Benny Cunningham ($4,400) – Cheap, catches passes, plays Washington; check if Mason plays
Antonio Brown ($8,800) – The Julio of Week 2?
Julian Edelman ($6,700) – Targets, targets, targets, targets, targets
Mike Wallace ($5,400) – Is Detroit going to “cover” him like they did Keenan Allen?
Donte Moncrief ($4,600) – Watch him if T.Y. Hilton is out
Terrence Williams ($4,200) – No Dez, and Witten and the RBs will get all Philly's attention
Stevie Johnson ($4,200) – Chalk at a great price
Jason Witten ($4,300) – Philly will try and stop him, but will they be able to?
Tyler Eifert ($4,200) – Getting expensive; can he do it again?
Eric Ebron ($3,300) – Detroit may use him more and more
Darren Fells ($2,500) – Sometimes you need a guy priced like him
Dolphins ($3,300) – All five defenses listed here play a dog of a QB
My DraftKings Ticket:
Carson Palmer, Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews, Mike Wallace, Darren Fells, Mark Ingram, Ravens defense
9/17 - Week 2 FanDuel: Going the Other Way
I took a lot of the Week 1 data points to heart over at DraftKings. But with my lineup at FanDuel, I'm going the other way with some players who got good work but didn't cash in enough last week. Without a flex at FanDuel, there are no mulligans. Every player needs big numbers, and I don't want to get cute. The top receivers are now too expensive, and with a half-point PPR, I want to focus on top backs. Players I'm interested in:
Drew Brees ($8,900) – Tampa's offense and defense will give Brees opportunities
Sam Bradford ($7,500) – Don't know why he's not pricier
Tyrod Taylor ($6,300) – Should also be priced a tier higher
Marshawn Lynch ($8,500) – Can he do what Forte did against Green Bay?
Jeremy Hill ($8,400) – Had the carries, just not the results last week
Alfred Morris ($7,300) – Top-two in carries last week
Carlos Hyde ($7,000) – Same price as Frank Gore and Gio Bernard; what?
Chris Ivory ($6,900) – No respect, again
Keenan Allen ($8,200) & DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) – FD wasted no time jacking up the price!
Brandon Cooks ($7,400) – Playing the Brees-to-Cooks narrative
Brandon Marshall ($7,400) – Still a stud talent
Jordan Matthews ($7,000) – Always and forever
Steve Smith ($6,700) – Bubkus last week, but the Raiders' secondary is not intimidating
Pierre Garcon ($5,400) – Best option at this price
Brandon Coleman ($5,000) – Okay, I'm getting cute
Rob Gronkowski ($8,300) – They might as well make it a million
Jason Witten ($6,000) – A tentpole on all my rosters
Jordan Reed ($5,000) – Cheap!
Still not wasting dollars on them
Pick a bad QB and take his opponent
My FanDuel Ticket
Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde, Brandon Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Pierre Garcon, Jason Witten, Buffalo Kicker (Dan Carpenter), Panthers defense
9/10 - DraftKings Roster Construction For Week 1
It’s finally here. Week 1. During the preseason the food tastes worse, sleep is fitful, and the wife looks at us funny. But no more! We’re all kings of the castle again.
The way DraftKings sets up their game squeezes us for every salary-cap dollar. Their scoring includes: a full PPR, special teams touchdowns count for your defense, and the flex really matters. I’ll mention specific players I like for Week 1 in a moment. First, here are three questions I ask about players when considering them for my entries.
Will Player X be on every winning ticket? Every week, it will turn out that there were players you had to select to win big money in a G.P.P. With that in mind, I evaluate elite players for their upsides and their expense, and try to decide whether they’ll wind up on a huge number of winning entries. For instance, in Week 1, Odell Beckham ($9,200) has potential to be on the winning ticket: Sunday night, bad Cowboys defense, coming off his monster rookie year. Can’t you just imagine him going for 35 points? Who doesn’t want a piece of that? But he’s so expensive! Maybe Dez Bryant ($8,500) offers a better ratio of upside-to-expense, so I can afford a slightly better team around him. Maybe C.J. Anderson ($7,000) offers an even better ratio.
Having selected a few elites whose upside/expense quotients look like winners, next I’ll ask myself about decent-scoring players….
Can Player X be on a winning ticket? If I squint hard, can I imagine a player whom I’m considering doing enough to be on a top entry? I’m looking for value, so I can fill the gaps between the elite players I’ve just decided upon. My guidepost is 20 points. Can I imagine a world in which not-elite-priced players reach upwards of 20 points? For instance, in Week 1, John Brown ($4,500) is deliciously inexpensive. I can imagine Chris Ivory ($4,100), Doug Martin ($4,500), Charles Johnson ($4,900) and Marvin Jones ($4,200) all scoring 20 in a PPR format. Most of the guys listed in my picks below are also players I think have a chance at 20 points, but with less risk and thus generally more cost.
Finally, there are the price anomalies: players whose values are artificially deflated either because of past injury, or because their current upside isn’t yet baked into their cost. So I ask myself….
Am I with Player X or am I against him? The DraftKings market will know which players are artificially cheap, and that means many, many entries will contain such players. They’re obvious. For instance, when DK set their Week 1 price for Davante Adams ($4,400), Jordy Nelson wasn’t injured. Think you’re being sharp for picking Adams? You’re not—everyone I’ve talked to has him. We’re predicting 35% ownership here. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t pick Adams. It simply means that you should be aware: if you don’t pick him, you’re actually betting against him. So you have to specifically decide if you’re with or against Adams. Make that decision before you go on. He’s the kind of player who can hurt more if you don’t have him and he scores than if you do have him and he doesn’t. If he scores 20, he’ll definitely be on the winning ticket. But if he scores nothing, he’ll take down a big swath of tickets. So which side are you on? To a lesser extent, Ameer Abdullah ($4,000) and Alfred Blue ($3,600) are like this too, but their ownership percentages won’t get as high as Adams’.
Now for some suggestions on players I like to fill out your Week 1 card:
Peyton Manning ($8,200) – want to see how the ball gets distributed in Denver
Sam Bradford ($6,900) – Peyton-esque upside without the cost
Carson Palmer ($6,500) – lots of pent-up fantasy frustration here; the Cards could surprise
Jeremy Hill ($7,100) – love the matchup with Oakland and know he’ll get work
Demarco Murray ($6,700) – not sure how he’ll be used, but a great matchup against Atlanta
Jonathan Stewart ($5,800) – what else are the Panthers gonna do?
Randall Cobb ($8,000) – with Jordy down, can afford to play the whole Packers battery
Jordan Matthews ($7,200) – you won’t be alone
Jeremy Maclin ($6,900) – sneaky pick or Sisyphus? I say sneaky pick
Steve Smith ($6,400) – huge presence on Week 1 winners last year
Jarvis Landry ($5,600) – great price and great receiver for PPR, and Washington does not intimidate
Nothing looks appealing to me here, so I’m not paying a premium. In fact, I’m picking a price and not a player: $3,400 or $3,500. That means I’m choosing from Kyle Rudolph ($3,500), Ladarius Green ($3,500), Owen Daniels ($3,400), Delanie Walker ($3,400) and Josh Hill ($3,400).
Again, there’s no incredible value on the board. I’ll roll with Houston ($3,000), Miami ($3,000) and maybe Denver ($2,800).
My DraftKings Ticket:
Sam Bradford, CJ Anderson, Chris Ivory, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Owen Daniels, John Brown and the Dolphins defense
9/10 - Some Thoughts And Picks For FanDuel Week 1
In general, FanDuel’s salaries are more compressed and the salary minimums are higher compared to DraftKings. It’s also worth noting that the 0.5 PPR scoring decreases the values of pass receptions while putting a premium on yards and TDs.
I’m starting to think that Adrian Peterson ($9,200) could be the kind of player I'd rather pay for on FanDuel, because the cheaper RBs like Chris Ivory ($6,400) and Doug Martin ($6,900) are no longer as relatively cheap as they are on DraftKings. But AP costs me two of CJ Anderson ($8,400), Dez Bryant ($8,700), and Odell Beckham ($8,900) and I'm unwilling to pay that. So compared to my DraftKings ticket, I'm looking to level up with a slightly cheaper but still top-flight RB.
FanDuel made the Eagles passing game attractive. Sam Bradford ($7,500), Jordan Matthews ($6,800) and Nelson Agholor ($5,500) are priced low compared to players in their tier. I could see having them all.
Davante Adams ($5,500) is still artificially cheap, but not quite as cheap as on DraftKings. I may diversify. John Brown ($6,000) and Jeremy Maclin ($7,600) are suddenly quite pricey, and so much less attractive.
Here are some finalists to consider on FanDuel:
Matt Ryan ($8,800) – great Week 1 last year
Ryan Tannehill ($8,000) – a lot less respect on FanDuel than DraftKings
Marshawn Lynch ($8,600) – I need two RB studs; Lynch and these other three guys are the right price
Jeremy Hill ($8,600)
DeMarco Murray ($8,500)
Eddie Lacy ($8,500)
Vincent Jackson ($7,200) – he's up in the polls with Evans possibly missing Week 1
Steve Smith ($6,700) – nice price on both FanDuel and DraftKings
Kyle Rudolph ($5,300) – I’m coming to terms finally that he's the TE I want
Jordan Reed ($5,000) – really nice price
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($4,700) – too nice a price; I smell a trap
My FanDuel Ticket:
Sam Bradford, Eddie Lacy, CJ Anderson, Odell Beckham, Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, Kyle Rudolph, Arizona Kicker (Cantazaro), Jets defense
8/25 - Building Multiple Entries In DFS
I talked about this in general terms on the podcast, but here’s an example of how I build multiple entries in DFS. I'll use FanDuel’s Week 1 pricing as an example.
Let's say I'm playing nine tickets for a General Prize Pool. I’m going to have several players in common across all or many of my tickets, with the aim of creating a winner. Mathematically speaking, if I trust that my information is better on my favorite players, I’m smart to work them onto as many tickets as I can.
My intention is to score each of the core players I want to use from 1 to 9, reflecting how many tickets I intend to put them on. Once I do this, I’ll generate “boxes,” much like at a horse race:
Step 1: Boxing WR1 and WR2. For Week 1 on FanDuel, I gave three WRs scores of 6: Dez Bryant ($8,700), Odell Beckham ($8,900) and Calvin Johnson ($8,500). So I’m going to “box” those three receivers in three combinations: Dez/OBJ; Dez/Megatron; OBJ/Megatron.
Step 2: Boxing RB1 and RB2. Since I’m spending big on two receivers, I won’t be able to spend big on two rushers on all my tickets. So I’ve thrown a couple value plays I like very much into the RB mix. I gave three scores of 6 to C.J. Anderson ($8,400), Joseph Randle ($6,900), and Chris Ivory ($6,400). Once again, the three combinations of two running backs each go on three tickets (Anderson/Randle; Anderson/Ivory; Randle/Ivory).
Step 3: Arrange the boxes. I’ve got three WR boxes and three RB boxes. Now I pair each WR box with each RB box to begin building my tickets. The “Dez/OBJ” box gets paired with the “Anderson/Randle” box, then with the “Anderson/Ivory” box, then with the “Randle/Ivory” box. Next, the “Dez/Megatron” box gets paired with each. Finally, the “OBJ/Megatron” box gets paired with each. That results in nine tickets that each has four players filled in.
Step 4: Pick cheaper WR3s. For Week 1, I rated three WRs with a score of 3: Nelson Agholor ($5,500), Davante Adams ($5,500) and Charles Johnson ($5,600). I rate them with a lesser score of 3 because on average cheaper players are less likely to hit, and you don't want to kill too many tickets with a mistake. So each of these less-expensive receivers will wind up on three tickets: I’ll match them up so that each guy plays on a ticket with each combination of WR1/WR2 or RB1/RB2 (but not both, as we're out of tickets).
Step 5: Select middle-of-the-pack placeholders for TEs, Ks and DEFs. I might shift a few tight ends, kickers or defenses in and out of a few entries, but for now, they’re simply salary placeholders.
Step 6: Pick QBs. I look how much salary I have left on each ticket, and pick three quarterbacks for the nine tickets, spreading them out in places where their salaries fit. On some tickets, I might have room for an Aaron Rodgers ($9,700), while on other tickets, I’ll be squeezed into lesser options.
Step 7: Horse-trading. This is where any mathematical “system” must be injected with “art.” It’s time for horse-trading. Some of my tickets will have salary remaining. Some might actually be over the cap. I will trade players among my tickets to achieve a bit more salary balance, and I’ll also upgrade some tickets, swapping a player out for a better player I didn’t think I’d be able to afford.
I don't force myself to stay mathematically pure. Maybe I’m a little less sure about Beckham; I might slide him off a couple tickets and use Demaryius Thomas ($8,800) instead. Or I might slide up Davante Adams to his slot and free up more cash for a better RB. I might even use Dez more. And I will likely put Peyton ($9,100) on every ticket where I can afford him. My only rule is that I don’t try and make the same change to nearly identical tickets. But I do massage my entries quite a bit. In the end, of course, I still wind up with a lot of overlap: many common players on whom I think my information is better than the betting public’s.
8/7 – DraftKings Week 1 Salaries Released
Using the newly released Week 1 DraftKings salaries, let’s look at Green Bay and Atlanta, and evaluate the possibility of “stacking” the best teammates from these offenses.
On the road against the Bears last year, Green Bay exploded to a 38-17 win where fantasy goodness was spread around. In Week 1 last year at home, Atlanta got into a shootout with New Orleans and Matt Ryan was Week 1's top DFS quarterback, landing on many money-winning tickets. This year the Falcons again start at home, this time against Philadelphia, another team who doesn’t shy away from a shootout. First, let’s look at the Packers:
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($8,600)
WR: Jordy Nelson ($8,400)
WR: Randall Cobb ($8,000)
There’s a path to owning all three of these Green Bay weapons. To do so would require going cheap on RBs (where cheap options are already starting to manifest: see the Texans RB situation) and likely having a bargain-basement play at flex. As for the Falcons:
QB: Matt Ryan ($7,500)
WR: Julio Jones ($9,300)
Ryan is reasonably priced and Jones is super-expensive; selecting this duo allows for moderation throughout the rest of your ticket. It’s another group of “stacked” teammates I’d be willing to consider building around.
Finally, here are a few Packers and Falcons cheapies who are intriguing:
WR: Davante Adams ($4,300)
RB: Tevin Coleman ($4,800)
RB: Devonta Freeman ($4,300)
With both Coleman and Freeman banged up, the Atlanta RB situation deserves extra scrutiny; if one of them can get healthy and clearly wrest the starting gig, he could be a bargain. The night is still young, but the party is ongoing. Stay tuned!
7/30 - FanDuel Week 1 Salaries Released
It's early, but I'm focused on two teams in Week 1: Dallas and Denver. The Cowboys always seem to show up against the Giants on a Sunday night and the Broncos scored 49 points against the Ravens at home two years ago. Possible roster cornerstones from these teams include:
QB: Peyton Manning ($9,100) - Most cost-effective way to get a piece of all the great weapons.
RB: Joseph Randle ($6,900) - If Randle really winds up the starter, he's undervalued by $2K.
WR: Dez Bryant ($8,700) - A way to leverage overall Cowboys production.
And value plays from these squads may include:
WR: Cole Beasley ($5,000) - He'd benefit from a full PPR, but volume may get him there anyway.
WR: Cody Latimer ($4,900) - Let's see how frequently Gary Kubiak goes three-wide, though.
TE: Owen Daniels ($5,500) - Julius Thomas scored three times in Week 1 for the Broncos last year.
Here are some other guys I'm liking early:
RB: LeSean McCoy, BUF ($8,400) (vs. IND)
WR: Jarvis Landry, MIA ($6,900) (@WAS)
WR: Jordan Matthews, PHI ($6,800) (@ATL)
TE: Dwayne Allen, IND ($5,400) (@BUF)
TE: Delanie Walker, TEN ($5,400) (@TB)
TE: Josh Hill, NO ($5,200) (@ARI)
K: Dan Carpenter, BUF ($4,800) (vs. IND)
DEF: Seattle ($5,000) (@STL)
DEF: NYJ ($4,400) (vs. CLE)
Of course, other cheap options will reveal themselves as camps get going. Stay tuned to this spot for more DFS analysis!